Republicans Lost 2012 Election Because of a Confidence Crisis

By the numbers, this year was not a great victory for the Democrat Party. Yet, it was a great failure of the Republican Party to win the confidence of Independents.

For those that want to call this a democratic mandate, some historical reference is in order. Looking back at previous second term elections, we see that 2012 provides the least significant “mandate” for a returning President in recent history.

1972 Nixon won by 18 million votes, a spread of 21.2 percent of the popular vote. His approval/disapproval rates were 62/28 just prior to the election.

1984 Reagan won by 16.8 million votes, a spread of 18.2% of the popular vote.
His approval/disapproval rates were 58/33 just prior to the election.

1996 Clinton won by 8.2 million votes, a spread of 8.5% of the popular vote.
His approval/disapproval rates were 54/36 just prior to the election.

2004 Bush won by 3 million votes, a spread of 2.4% of the popular vote.
His approval/disapproval rates were 53/44 just prior to the election.

2012 Obama won by 2.6 million votes, a spread of 2.2% of the popular vote. His approval/disapproval rates were 52/45 just prior to the election.

More voters were disenfranchised in 2012 versus 2008 for 119 million voted this year compared to 131 million in 2008.

In 2012, Democrats continued to enjoy greater number of registered voters than Republicans. In fact, Democrats have 18% more registered voters than Republicans, and 6 million more Democrats than Republicans voted in 2012. Republicans win national elections when more independents affiliate with their views than with those of the Democrats. Yet in 2012, Republicans failed to make up this 6 million-vote party vote gap when only 3.5 million more Independents voted with the Republicans than with the Democrats.

What was the greatest factor in the independent voting gap in 2012? JOBS! 23 million Americans were either unemployed or underemployed. Add in their spouses and 40 million people were concerned in 2012 about where they would find money to make mortgage payments or even to buy groceries. 5.5 million Americans are the so-called 99ers have long since stopped collecting unemployment checks and whose need for immediate employment is dire. Add to this list the 15.7 million Americans whose homes are underwater, and what we have is a confidence crisis in America.

Polls did not ask these folks affected by this confidence crisis who they believed in 2012 would most likely support them with a social safety net, but if they had, the numbers would have been overwhelmingly in favor of the Democrats. For the Republicans to have won in 2012, they would have had to overcome this confidence crisis by ensuring that those affected by joblessness could quickly become employed by the Republican job plan. Otherwise, those voting for Romney would be in an even direr financial crisis than now. Obviously, Romney did not overcome their fears.

What was required for Romney to win in 2012 was a jobs plan that could ensure immediate employment of those that voted for him, such as my plan that can be found at thrivingpath.com. The electorate measured up his jobs plan and found it wanting.

Party Cockroaches Must Crawl out from the Pre-election Rocks

2010 is not a foreshadowing of 2012 just like 2008 was not of 2010 and 2006 was not of 2008. If the past three elections foreshadowed anything, they warned both political parties that Americans have fallen into a caldron of frantic emotions spurred on by a devastated economy and that roaming, apolitical gangs are wandering the dusty highways of a post-apocalyptic economic era clinging to last hopes of finding someone who will bravely stand atop the barren political landscape holding up a banner of a believable brighter future.

Like cockroaches after the nuclear explosions, gangs of Democrats and Republicans have huddled en masse in 2012 hoping to survive the fallout by shouting worn out platitudes of pre-cataclysmic issues. Yet, millions of jobless Americans, no longer believing in the protection offered by the parties, are drifting the bombed out pre-election roads looking for any sign of a future economic life that can be offered to them as a token to join these burned out, Party semblances of prior ideals.

Finding no hope of a viable plan for recovery, these poor unaffiliated souls will continue to drift right up until the election, their ears deafened to the ringing sounds of any other political issue drum that attempts to drown out the hollow sounds of joblessness. A blurry vision of a destitute future having replaced the hope for America’s shining city on a hill that previous generations bore as they entered precinct voting booths, 2012 out of work voters’ hearts will be filled with angst and fear for their loved ones.

When one dreads the potential fallout of their decision, the last thing they vote for is change. Living with the gloom of repeating the past four years of vastly lowered expectations is sadly better than the potential their vote for Republicans might shove the economy and any hopes of even a mildly better life off a cliff of despair.

The problem with Governor Romney’s campaign that no one who can turn it around is admitting, is that he has not been able to inspire even an inkling of confidence that the Republicans will spur jobs in 2013. Out of work voters find little encouragement in messages of tax reductions and smaller government at a time when 1 in 6 Americans cannot provide their families enough food on their dinner tables. When the economy is broken, even would be diehard conservatives secretly grasp onto even small life rings of government assistance that float amidst the economic wreckage. The Republican mantra must shift left momentarily to briefly aid a drowning public.

If Governor Romney’s message does not take a major course correction, not only he, but the entire Republican Party is in for an historic routing. The 40 million out of work independent voters that hold the 2012 election in their hands want viable, direct jobs plans and yet neither party has yet to grasp the gravity of this certainty. I am sure that Republican Party strategists could construct a DIRECT job plan that best fits their market ideology while assisting America out of this depression.

Continuing to manage this election like all others, attempting to energize their faithful into the voting booths rather than address head on the central issue of 2012 might work for the Democrats but it will fail miserably for the Republicans. Party faithful will turn out in droves this year for the potential outcome of 2012 elections is more critical to voters than we have experienced in 40 years. But the out of work independents will be there as a massive bloc and they will cast the deciding votes.

President Clinton’s convention speech quelled enough of independents’ anger over the slow recovery to maintain an incumbency lead going into November. If the Republican Party, and more precisely Mitt Romney, is unable to replace the out-of work independents’ fear of the unknown with a clear vision inclusive of real jobs, 2012 levers will most certainly be pulled for the disheartening status quo.

Hey Third Party, Rise Up and Meet the Challenge!

Is this the political message Bob the electrician hears?

Republican Plan for America:
• Get rid of Obama
• Make a “simpler” tax code that lowers taxes for the Rich and increases taxes on the poor
• Let the housing debacle take its course, foreclose on millions of Americans and put millions more through bankruptcies to stabilize the banks
• Make a million jobs through drilling
• Reduce business costs by eliminating regulations and unions
• Cut government spending and start America on austerity
• Pass trade bills that loses millions more jobs

Democrat Plan for America:
• Tax the rich
• Tax the middle class
• Spend billions more stimulus to keep union jobs intact
• Keep government big and federal budgets big
• Propose jobs plan that won’t pass Congress, and that will create far fewer jobs than needed.
• Offer housing solutions that won’t stop foreclosures and bankruptcy
• Start a trade war with China that could cost millions of jobs

Bob now must decide which of these two political bags of trash needs to be put to the curb. With such a rotting smell coming from both camps, it will be hard for poor Bob to choose. Can’t he throw out both in favor of another? Will an independent rise up to either force at least one party to turn populist, or to take the White House on behalf of the Great Middle America? 2012 would be easier for a third party candidate to win outright than any post WWII.

Both parties seem intent on not angering the election gods who fund their re-elections, those one percent of Americans whose capital is at risk from any real solution to turn around America. The Republicans are casting their nets toward the one percent by bold, almost irreversible statements like those made by Challenger Mitt Romney who said, “Don’t try and stop the foreclosure process. Let it run its course and hit the bottom.” In so doing, the Republicans aren’t even hiding their intent from the 99 percent, almost blatantly admitting to the rest of America that elections are won by those that favor the gods.

The Democrats, however, recognize they need the one percent just as much as the Republicans. They know that programs that could turn around America could also put the wealth of the one percent more at risk. Therefore, President Obama’s plan seems to merely demagogue against the Republicans while offering meager fringe plans that sound like the right direction but that go only as far as the one percent will allow. Both parties have set their course for 2012 and it is a rough one for the 99 percent.

Tell me Bob the Electrician, which one of these plans is going to help you stay in your house, fix your credit, get a decent paying job, put your kids in college, and help you prepare for retirement? If you guessed neither, you are more right than wrong, so trust your instinct. If you are leaning toward, President Obama, you will probably be in the winning majority because a vote for words that sound like they are at least in the right direction will beat blatant, irreversible words that shout to the one percent “I am your Republican Guard” any day of the week.

Yet, America should not have to choose between meekness and arrogance. We can turn around our country without an all out class war. Housing debt can be fixed with an equity for debt swap that keeps banks intact, that doesn’t trigger credit default swaps, and that keeps America’s families in their homes. Business and consumer credit ratings can be salvaged with credit amnesty. All able Americans can be placed in jobs through a job voucher plan that immediately sets America back on course. We can begin to dig our way out through increased competitiveness, government can be right sized, and America’s business environment can be made more attractive. Hey, Republicans and Democrats, any takers? How about you Mr. Trump or Mr. Bloomberg?